上海服务业发展水平的国内与国际比较

本文首先比较了上海与国内18个副省级及以上城市服务业总体发展情况，将上海服务业各行业增加值及服务业内部构成与北京、天津、重庆、广州和深圳5个国内经济发展水平较高的城市进行了比较，采用“区位熵”的方法衡量了上海服务业各行业的比较优势。其次，将上海服务业发展水平与若干国际大都市进行比较，得出上海服务业仍处于较低的发展水平，尚未进入以知识型、生产型等高级服务业为主导的发展时期，大力发展现代服务业是上海当前的现实选择的结论。     

网络营销创新定位、运行模型及案例分析

网络营销的创新性质包括创新程度和创新效益两个方面。创新程度反映网络营销创新的影响力度,是过程性指标;创新效益反映网络营销的经济效应,是结果性指标。将创新度和效益度垂直相交构成一个二维平面,并将其分别划分为高低两个级别段,可形成四个定位模块,即触网型创新、网络实验型创新、网络营销专家和运营网络型创新。一般情况下,企业网络营销创新往往从触网型创新出发。进而上升到运营网络型创新阶段,但在网络营销实践中,某些创新运动并不是严格地起于触网型创新,而止于运营网络模型,更有逆向运行的情况存在。     

我国医药物流业面临的机遇、挑战、现状与对策

中国已加入WTO，在新形势下如何改善医药流通，提高医药企业的竞争力？中就此分析了我国医药物流业面临的机遇、挑战和发展现状，并提出了一些对策和建议。     

Are Expected Inflation Rates and Expected Real Rates Negatively Correlated? A Long‐Run Test of the Mundell‐Tobin Hypothesis

Some empirical evidence suggests that the expected real interest and expected inflation rates are negatively correlated. This hypothesis of negative correlation is sometimes known as the Mundell‐Tobin hypothesis. In this article we reinvestigate this negative relation from a long‐term point of view using cointegration analysis. The data on the historical interest rate on T‐bills and the inflation rate indicate that the Mundell‐Tobin hypothesis does not hold in the long run for the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada. We also obtain similar results using the real interest rate on index‐linked gilt traded in the United Kingdom.     

Commodity currencies

This paper looks at real exchange rate behavior by focusing on three OECD economies (Australia, Canada, and New Zealand) where primary commodities constitute a significant share of their exports. For Australia and New Zealand especially, we find that the US dollar price of their commodity exports (generally exogenous to these small economies) has a strong and stable influence on their floating real rates, with the magnitude of the effects consistent with predictions of standard theoretical models. However, after controlling for commodity price shocks, there is still a purchasing power parity puzzle in the residual. The results here are relevant to developing commodity-exporting countries as they liberalize their capital markets and move towards floating exchange rates.     

Modernization in Mainland China:

A bstract . After 1949, mainland China, a developing socialist country, adopted an inward-looking policy with emphasis on self-reliance and economic independence. However, in their drive for economic reform that began in 1978, mainland China drifted to the new doctrine of "taking self-reliance as the principal means and external assistance as a subsidiary." A version of the two-gap model is constructed to test the hypothesis that both domestic capital accumulation and foreign capital inflows affect economic development in mainland China , the latter being an indicator of modernization. Due to insufficient data, pooled cross-section and time-series data for the period 1984–1986 are employed. The quantitative evidence suggests that foreign capital inflows, instead of domestic capital accumulation, have importantly affected the modernization drive of mainland China. The recent political turmoil in mainland China has slowed down foreign capital inflows which in turn may retard its modernization.     

联合基数确定法: 一个激励相容的财务学范本

委托代理制是企业机制设计理论的重要内容，科学界定委托人代理人之间的权利关系，合理分享剩余权，是形成激励相容机制的重要环节，本文介绍的利润基数联合确定法是杭州商学院院长胡祖光教授的国家自然科学基金课题成果，它为解决委托人与代理人之间的信息不对称，激励代理人的自动努力，提供了值得借鉴的财务解决方法，同时，该方案宽泛的约束条件（见两则案例），为不同所有制企业提供了具有弹性的激励方案。     

From T-Bills to Stocks: Seasonal Anomalies Revisited

This paper employed eleven data series which consist of stocks, bonds, bills, equity premiums, term premiums, and various default premiums to investigate whether January seasonality reported in existing literature is robust across different states of the economy as this has important trading implications. For the periods 1926–1990, small stocks, small stock premiums, low grade bonds, and default premiums (spread between high grade, low grade and government bonds) reveal January seasonality and that the seasonality is robust across different states of the economy except for low grade bond returns and default premiums. January seasonality for low grade bond returns and low grade bond default premiums are primarily driven by results found during periods of economic expansion. Overall, January seasonality is more evident during the economic expansion periods although the magnitude of default premiums is larger during periods of economic contraction. Furthermore, prior findings of strong summer equity returns are primarily driven by the results found during the periods of economic contraction. It is also found that equity returns are generally higher during periods of economic expansion.     

中国当前的财政政策及趋势

中国自1998年到2004年间实施的积极财政政策,对保持经济平稳增长,缓解通货紧缩,优化经济结构,促进就业和促进区域经济均衡发展等方面发挥了积极的作用。随着中国宏观经济形势的变化,以及考虑到防范公共风险,积极财政政策应作相应的调整。2005年,中国实施了稳健的财政政策(也就是经济学意义上的中性财政政策),其政策核心是适度减少财政赤字和长期建设国债的规模,并对财政分配结构进行调整。中国未来一段时期特别是“十一五”前期应继续实施稳健的财政政策。     

基于胜任力结构的企业家才能分析

一、企业家才能的相关理论在西方经济学界,人们认为劳动、资本、土地、企业家才能四部分构成了生产要素,在这四种生产要素中企业家才能则是其灵魂性的要素。企业家才能是指企业领导的经营管理和创新能力,包括创新能力、合作精神、敬业精神、竞争意识、冒险精神、自信、判断能力